United Flight 232

When you've blown your rear engine on a commercial airliner with 296 people on board, and lost your control surfaces as a result, you might think it would be time to panic.

Captain Alfred Haynes thought it was time to do his job. In the ultimate manifestation of Top Gun's "this is what we have been trained for" moment, he stayed perfectly calm, staring death in the face, and with the help of his co-pilots used the throttles to lower United Flight 232 onto an Iowa runway, saving two-thirds of the passengers on that afternoon in 1989.

What's amazing is his voice. I go back to listen to him from time to time. He displays no emotion, no hysteria, no panic. Listen to him here.

I mention this now because it's inspirational as feelings start to run hot in our society. Keep Captain Haynes in mind as you move forward the next few months. You are going to hear a lot of emotion. The job for all of us is to put the airliner onto the runway.


Economists have been pushing the idea of an economic "pause" and a V-shaped recovery. They may be right, and the markets are now, shall we say, "friending" the idea. But as we advised to keep calm in the March drop, caution is in order now too as the markets look forward euphorically. Remember, markets trade based on where they think the world will be months from now, not where they are.

Irrespective of whether or not an economy can reopen without a spring-back in viral infections, here are two longer-term business trends to think about that might argue against a V-shaped recovery.

1. Fear and panic spread like wildfire, but it takes years for those emotions to dissipate. In that sense they behave like the inverse of trust, which takes a long time to build but can vaporize overnight. These emotions allowed our society to shut down immediately, but they're not a light switch. People may not "turn back on" right away. If there is a weakness in the field of economics, it's that it doesn't tend to model human emotion well.

2. Businesses will rehire gradually - they will be cautious for a long time. Many of you who run and work in businesses have expressed this to me the past few weeks, and I think it's correct. Especially given the debt loads that people and businesses are carrying, a conservative mindset will dominate. For example, no one is going to reopen a hotel and rehire everyone when only a fraction of the rooms are full.

I know a lot of you are confused by the wild swings in the market. Keep in mind that the market is confused, and it's trying to figure it out.

Stay calm, think about the principles we've discussed here over the years, and think long term.

Dan Cunningham

(1) If a wingtip hadn't caught the ground at the last moment, he may have saved them all. The success of this event has never been reproduced in a simulator.

Return to Articles
How We Are Different
Low-fee index funds. Transparent & fiduciary financial advisors.
Local Financial Advisor
We are in your community. We are local.
Investment Management
We tailor to each client. Index funds at the core.
Index Funds
Broad market exposure, low expense.
Dan's Corner
Meaningful musings from our founder.
Fiduciary
Your best interests are our priority.
Low Fees
Our fees are among the lowest in the nation.
Financial Planner
Financial advisor optimizes your financial picture.
U.S. Treasury Bonds
Use Treasury Bonds to reduce risk.
Book Recommendations
Here are some of our favorites.
Inflation
What is inflation, and what cuases inflation.
When Should I Invest?
Life transitions = important financial decisions.
Retirement: 401k and More
Retiring? Plan the future you want.
IRA Rollovers
401k Rollovers. IRA Rollovers
Active vs. Passive Investing
We believe there is a winner in this debate.
The Investment Process
How we work: low-cost index funds, personalized attention.
Simplicity
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
Investing: What to Focus On
Low-fee index funds. fee-only advisor.
Switching Financial Advisors
Can be uncomfortable, but an important step.
Advisor Recruiting
We attract top-tier talent. Not your usual firm.
Basic Investing
Let's start with Investing 101.
Understanding Your Financial Statement
Let's break it down to basics.
Taxes on Investments
What causes taxes within your investments?
Behavioral Economics
The less emotion, the better.
Timing the Market in 2020
2020 - a case study in the futility of market timing.
How Financial Firms Bill
Fee-based vs. fee-only, and lots more.
Who Supports Indexing?
Bogle, Swensen, Buffett, and others.
Transparency
One click to see our fees.
Mutual Funds vs ETFs
Clarifying the difference.
Does Stock Picking Work?
The research says no.
Countering Arguments Against Index Funds
What happens in a down market?
Annuities
Lots of fees, little clarity.
How Do Mutual Funds Work?
Invest in the basket.
How to Relieve Financial Stress
New client? anxiety is normal.
Financial Terms Glossary
Common investment terms you should know.
Firm Comparison
One Day In July vs the competition.
Retired Investing
Retiring? Let us help.
Accounts We Manage
We manage a wide range of investment account types.
High Net Worth Investors
Preserve and grow your wealth.
Investing an Inheritance
Prioritizing and planning for the future.
Frequently Asked Questions
Good questions, real answers.
Female Investors
Your voice needs to be heard. We are listening.
For the Business Owner
Choosing what's best for your business.
Environmental Investing
Carbon intensity, fossil fuels.

Locations

Vermont

Connecticut

United States

Services

Individuals

401k Plans

Institutions

Environmental

Account Types

Differentiators

Cash Flows

Low Fees

Fiduciary

Dedicated Advisor

Materials

Advisors: Join Us

Careers

Articles on Investing

About the Secure Act

Quarterly Booklets

Resources

Vermont Investment Management

Vermont Retirement Planning

Vermont Wealth Management

Vermont Financial Advisors

Investment Tools

In the Media

Shelburne, VT Financial Advisor

Frank Koster | Josh Kruk | Keith McCarthy

5247 Shelburne Rd, Suite #101

Shelburne, VT 05482

(802) 777-9768

Stowe, VT Finanical Advisor

Available for meetings in Stowe.

Peter Egolf

(802) 999-2321

Burlington, VT Financial Advisor

Hans Smith | Katie Muttitt

Nancy Westbrook | Peter Egolf

77 College Street #3A

Burlington, VT 05401

(802) 503-8280

Darien, CT Financial Advisor

Available for meetings in Darien.

Keith McCarthy

(203) 554-9466


v 2.1.4 | © One Day In July LLC. All Rights Reserved.